Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Trainline shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
| FY2024A | FY2025F | FY2026F | FY2027F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net ticket sales (£m) | ||||
| UK Consumer | 3,469 | 3,743 | 3,989 | 4,246 |
| International Consumer | 1,041 | 1,183 | 1,354 | 1,564 |
| Trainline Solutions | 785 | 885 | 972 | 1,051 |
| Group | 5,295 | 5,812 | 6,315 | 6,862 |
| Revenue (£m) | ||||
| UK Consumer | 209 | 218 | 214 | 226 |
| International Consumer | 53 | 63 | 74 | 86 |
| Trainline Solutions | 135 | 148 | 160 | 173 |
| Group | 397 | 429 | 448 | 486 |
| Adjusted EBITDA (£m)1 | ||||
| UK Consumer | 86 | 90 | 89 | 96 |
| International Consumer | (17) | (11) | (7) | (2) |
| Trainline Solutions | 53 | 62 | 67 | 75 |
| Group | 122 | 141 | 150 | 168 |
1 Adjusted EBITDA excludes exceptional items and share-based payment charges.
Last updated 6 June 2024. Based on the nine analysts that have published numbers post post Trainline's full year results announcement on 3 May 2024 and correctly accounted for the commission rate adjustment in UK Consumer from FY26 onwards.
The financial forecasts presented above have not been prepared by and are not endorsed in any way by Trainline plc (“Trainline”). Trainline has not verified or commented on any individual estimates, nor does it intend to do so in the future. Trainline assumes no responsibility to update, revise or otherwise comment on any of the information contained in these forecasts. It should be noted that financial forecasts are, by definition, forward looking, and are therefore subject to various risks and uncertainties which are subject to change at any time.
Analysts covering Trainline
| Sell-side house | Analyst |
|---|---|
| Barclays | Andrew Ross |
| Berenberg | Ciarán Donnelly |
| BNP Paribas Exane | Alistair Johnson |
| Canaccord | Karl Burns |
| JP Morgan | Marcus Diebel |
| Morgan Stanley | Miriam Josiah |
| Numis | Gareth Davies |
| Panmure Gordon | Lena Thakker |
| Peel Hunt | James Lockyer |
| Shore Capital | Katie Cousins |
| Stifel | Mark Irvine-Fortescue |
| UBS | Ivar Billfalk-Kelly |